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In the first half of the year, the production capacity of packaging paper was nearly 5million tons. Analysis from the perspective of securities professionals

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core tips: [China Packaging News] looking forward to 2019, The paper price market makes the dry diaphragm difficult to predict while ensuring high strength. There are reasons to be bearish and bullish in the industry. For this reason, the author has collected a paper-making report from securities institutions, hoping that their performance will become better [China Packaging News] looking forward to 2019, it is difficult to predict the trend of paper price. In the industry, it is reasonable to be optimistic and optimistic as long as we pay attention to the following points. Therefore, the author has collected a paper-making report from a securities institution, hoping to provide reference for the insiders from the perspective of the securities industry

in the first half of the year, the production capacity of packaging paper was nearly 5million tons

the supply-demand relationship of various types of paper is an important reference to judge the future trend of the industry, and is a key variable to determine the profitability of the industry. Therefore, first of all, the supply-demand relationship of the packaging paper industry in 2019 is prospected

according to incomplete statistics of Baichuan information, the packaging paper industry will put in nearly 5million tons of capacity in the first half of 2019:

on the supply side, there will be great pressure on new capacity in 2019. On the demand side, Orient Securities believes that the pressure still exists

first, the weak domestic demand combined with the decline in export growth may continue to lead to weak terminal demand; Second, because the demand side is difficult to digest the new supply, the supply-demand relationship of box board corrugated paper may continue to deteriorate

2019 waste paper price analysis

on the raw material side, Orient Securities believes that the new regulations on foreign waste impurity content will be implemented in march2018, and the import volume of foreign waste will drop to 0 by the end of 2020. Therefore, China's import demand for foreign wastes continues to decline, and the price is expected to show a downward trend in 2019

under the background of weak demand in the paper industry in 2019, the domestic waste supply can meet the demand, and the domestic waste price may fluctuate or fall sideways in 2019

2019 packaging paper price analysis

based on the above, based on the price of raw materials, the trend of paper price depends on the supply-demand relationship of each paper type. However, in 2019, there will be too much capacity for packaging paper, and the probable rate of demand in the end market will continue to decline. Therefore, the paper price as a whole may show a steady downward trend

Orient Securities believes that the current supply-demand double trap pattern in the packaging paper industry is similar to that in the previous cycle around 2011. Even if the demand picks up in the future, it is expected to take a relatively long time to digest the excess capacity

it should be noted that in order to facilitate reading, the author deleted the contents of the original report on wood pulp, cultural paper, paper enterprise valuation, etc., and tried to show the securities industry's views on the price trend of packaging paper in 2019. Of course, their views may not be correct, and insiders should carefully refer to them

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