The most popular section steel has reached a new h

2022-08-08
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How long will it take for the steel price to fall to a new high and return to rationality?

the steel market in July can be described as rising all the way. From the perspective of the national market, influenced by the billet price hitting new highs in the year, the whole section steel market price is rising steadily, and the transaction shows a cyclical and large-scale trend. The operation of upstream production enterprises remained at the average level in the year, remained optimistic about the trend in the later period, and had a positive attitude of price support; Although the downstream is cautious about the market after the price rise, some businesses and terminals reluctantly accept the high price resources in the market under the condition of rigid demand, but they mostly purchase on demand and make inventory cautiously

by the end of July 31, the average market price of section steel in 10 major cities in China was counted: the average price of 5\angle steel was 3975 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan/ton month on month; The average price of 16# channel steel was 3963 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton month on month; The average price of 25i-beam was 4010 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton month on month; The average price of 200*100h section steel was 3791 yuan/ton, up 202 yuan/ton month on month; The average price of 300*300h section steel was 3908 yuan/ton, up 236 yuan/ton month on month; Replace the sealing ring or combined gasket in time; According to the usage of the machine and the service life of the oil, the average price of 400*200h section steel was 3855 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan/ton month on month

I. The price of steel billets has been soaring, and the price of section steel has hit a new record. New researchers found that the price of new thermosetting materials was high within the year

the traditional off-season months do not play cards as usual, but show a rebellious posture. With the number of snails breaking new highs in the year, the steel billet also stepped out of the new height in the year and stood at a high of 3850 yuan/ton. Tangshan section steel also broke through the highs of the year, including angle steel of 5 4280 yuan/ton, channel steel of 4200 yuan/ton and I-beam of 4150 yuan/ton

in terms of the supply side, from the perspective of the profits of the billet adjustment section steel plant, although the profit space has narrowed, the rough calculation still has a profit of yuan/ton, and the enthusiasm of the manufacturer is acceptable. In terms of middlemen, with the rise in the price of section steel, traders are a little cautious. In terms of operation, fast in and fast out are the main. Some radical merchants hoard goods, but the cycle of receiving and selling resources is not long. In the downstream, the acceptance of high priced resources is obviously low. It is generally believed that this rise is rapid, and it is difficult to accept the high utilization of high-end resources for a while. Rigid users have to accept high priced resources to meet their needs, while non rigid users wait and see carefully and wait for opportunities

II. Frequent environmental protection policies and weak drop in steel prices

the 2017 work plan for air pollution prevention and control in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas requires that key cities increase efforts to limit the production of iron and steel enterprises. All localities have implemented the classified management of iron and steel enterprises, and formulated the peak shift limit shutdown plan according to the pollution emission performance level. In Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Anyang and other key cities, the steel production capacity is limited by 50% in the heating season. Based on the blast furnace production capacity, the actual power consumption of enterprises is used to verify

although the heating season is too early, the impact of future production restriction on market resources is self-evident. The price rise is also a direct reflection of the market's expectation of the long-term market. Under the favorable influence of the environmental protection policy of limiting production and the policy of eliminating production capacity, the current steel market price support is obvious, and the decline is slightly weak. A variety of thermal insulation materials can be described as a hundred schools of thought contend

III. The inventory is at a normal level and the supply pressure is not great

this week (August 4 to August 10), the utilization rate of profile production capacity in Tangshan area was 73.03%, with a week on week increase of 4.14%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of I-beam steel was 75.66%, with an increase of 0.41% on a weekly basis; The capacity utilization rate of H-beam was 100%, and the cycle to cycle ratio increased by 10.53%; The capacity utilization rate of channel steel was 76.11%, and the cycle to cycle ratio decreased by 2.29%; The capacity utilization rate of angle steel was 54.57%, and the cycle to cycle ratio increased by 7.14%

as of press release, the total inventory of 27 profile steel plants in Tangshan was 456500 tons, up 25500 tons compared with last week, and up 5.92% on a weekly basis. Among them, the total amount of I-beam/h-beam was 130000 tons, with a decrease of 1.14% on a ring to ring basis; The total volume of channel steel was 110500 tons, with a decrease of 1.78% on a ring to ring basis; The total amount of angle steel was 216000 tons, and the circumferential ratio increased by 15.51%

in general, under the influence of favorable policies and higher futures market, the rise of spot prices is inevitable. But whether the rising spot price can stand is worth pondering. Unilateral market, too fast growth rate and too high growth rate also give birth to increased risks. In all kinds of hype environment, the market will eventually return to a rational state. It is necessary to pay close attention to the supply and demand data and cautiously catch up

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